Hectic consultations precede unveiling of US strategy
WASHINGTON: Sending American troops into Pakistan is a ‘red line’ that cannot be crossed, says US special envoy Richard Holbrooke, but he refuses to confirm or deny media reports that Washington may expand drone attacks to Balochistan.
Mr Holbrooke made these remarks in a series of interviews he gave this week to various media outlets, outlining salient features of the new US strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan.
His interviews, and those of other US officials, indicate that Pakistan has a pivotal position in the new strategy that seeks to redefine America’s approach to the two countries.
As the United States prepares to unveil the new strategy later this week, hectic consultations have begun between Washington and Islamabad to ensure that ‘there are no surprises for Pakistan in the new policy,’ said a diplomatic observer familiar with the US plan for the region.
Pakistan’s ambassador in Washington, Husain Haqqani, was summoned to Islamabad during the weekend, two days before a Pakistan Day reception he had hosted at the embassy.
Also, the Obama administration has indicated that it wants to brief senior Pakistani officials before announcing the new policy to avoid misunderstandings.
Diplomatic observers in Washington say that the Obama administration also plans to reach out to opposition politicians, particularly Nawaz Sharif, besides consulting the Zardari administration.
Senior US defence officials will also brief the Pakistani military on the new strategy, which calls for a three-fold increase – about $1.5 billion a year – in American aid to Pakistan.
Last week, Ambassador Haqqani reminded the Americans that only ‘elected leaders will continue to be the interlocutors with the international community on behalf of Pakistan.’
His comments followed US contacts with the Pakistan Army and the Sharif brothers during the long march. The term, as interpreted by the ambassador, excludes the military as well as the Sharif brothers from the list of those who, according to him, have the right to talk to other governments.
He does not consider the Sharif brothers ‘elected leaders’ because one of them was prevented to participate in the elections and the other was unseated.
But recent comments by Ambassador Holbrooke and other American officials show that they not only want to maintain their contact with the Sharif brothers but also consider the army a key player in Pakistan’s internal and external affairs would continue to consult them as well.
The Americans fear that the Zardari government is not focused on the war on terror and is wasting its resources on non-issues, like the toppling of the Punjab government or taking on the judiciary.
They are still willing to help the Zardari government in maintaining its control in the centre, but expect Mr Zardari to let PML-N, the largest party in Punjab, run that province.
In the centre too, they would like to see a distribution of power between the president and the prime minister and would like Mr Zardari to empower the parliament as well.
Washington, however, feels that Mr Zardari may not want to give up the powers he inherited from the former president, Pervez Musharraf, and that’s why they fear that the situation in Pakistan will continue to deteriorate.
But they are also not very sure about Mr Sharif’s intention or his capability to be an effective US partner in the war against terror.
‘While the Obama administration fears that Mr Zardari cannot deliver, they are not sure if Nawaz Sharif can,’ said a diplomatic observer familiar with Washington’s position on this issue.
‘This has further strengthened the army’s image in Washington,’ the observer said. ‘It is seen as the only stable institution in Pakistan, which can deliver if it can be convinced that it has to abandon its India-centric policies and focus on fighting extremists.’
In his interviews published this week, Mr Holbrooke reminded Pakistani leaders that their main threat was extremism, not India. He said that the extent of Taliban infiltration in northwest Pakistan was his greatest surprise during his fact-finding mission to the region last month.
‘A year ago, I visited Peshawar and I was asked about starting an Asia Society office there,’ Mr Holbrooke said. ‘Last month, people were afraid to go outside after dark and walk their dogs. The change in the situation was stunning. Geopolitically Afghanistan hasn’t changed; Pakistan has.’
He made it clear the ‘number one problem’ in stabilising Afghanistan was Taliban sanctuaries in western Pakistan, including tribal areas along the Afghan border and cities like Quetta.
‘Quetta appears to be the headquarters for the leaders of the Taliban and some of the worst people in the world,’ which he said includes the leader of the Pakistani Taliban Baitullah Mehsud.
‘As we speak, they are planning further attacks’ on the West and the region itself, he said. ‘It's tough,’ said Mr Holbrooke. ‘You can't send troops into Pakistan. That's a red line.’
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